The Transition To a Service Economy

Walter Russell Mead has a fine essay on the paradigm shift from a farming economy in the 19th century to a manufacturing economy in the 20th, and the current shift to a service economy in the 21st.

In the 19th century the average American ate more food than almost any other person on the planet as measured by caloric intake, but many suffered vitamin and mineral deficiencies due to limited diets. In the 20th century the quality and variety of food greatly increased; Americans ate more meals in restaurants and their restaurants kept getting better. In the 21st century our food will be better still: more hygienically grown, fresher, more nourishing, more attractively presented, incorporating wider varieties of flavoring and so forth.

Mead doesn't view this pessimistically or fatalistically, either:

Many of the dystopian fears about the future that lead people to cling to blue model ideas — and the belief that mass manufacturing employment is the only conceivable model that can provide good living standards — are rooted in this concern that the economy is all about the hard stuff. There are fears that we will transition from a world of well paid steelworkers in secure lifetime jobs to a world of baristas and waiters without money, without respect, and without any kind of security or dignity.

In any case, the new service economy is not just going to be a world of pool boys and pedicurists. It will be a world in which more students get individualized educational counseling from a growing group of education coaches and guides. There will be people who help us manage our technical and information systems: you may have a neighborhood Geek Squad type outfit that not only fixes computers when they go wrong but helps you manage and run all the information-dependent appliances and operations that make your home and life work. More people will work with fitness, nutrition and whole-person health professionals. Many of the services that the very rich enjoy today will be adapted to the needs and the pocketbooks of the middle and lower middle class tomorrow. You may have a life and work coach or agent who helps you manage your ongoing lifetime of learning and recertification as you learn new skills and move into new kinds of work. Many of the consulting services that large companies now have will be available to much smaller enterprises. Busy married couples with two good incomes already live in a cloud of people who help with everything from child care to lawn care; there will be more and more services targeted at this market, and more and more people will earn good livings working with upper income clients who have plenty of money but little time.

Read the whole thing.