Monday, January 30, 2012

Governor McCrory?

Tara Servatius, one of the best reporters in Charlotte, looks at some numbers.

31.4% – Again, as I wrote the other day, this is now essentially a Democrat or Democrat leaning state. It’s not deep blue, but rather a purpley blue, but definitely blue. And it is a state that has elected just two GOP governors since Reconstruction. The last one, Jim Martin, left office in 1993.

That, too, will give McCrory an uphill climb. Here’s what I wrote on that Friday:

It is common knowledge in the campaign world that GOP registration in a state or district has to be at 35 percent for the GOP to have a serious chance at winning. It’s at 31.4 percent. Unaffiliated registration is 24.5 percent. Democrat registration is 43.8 percent. To win, McCrory or another Republican must turn out the GOP, not too hard in an presidential year, and capture almost all of the the unaffiliated vote, or some of the unafilliated vote and some of the Democrat vote, not an easy thing to do.

McCrory, or any other Republican, could really struggle against someone who doesn’t start the race with high, built-in negatives like Perdue had.

Given that … Perdue’s announcement that she won’t run again was a huge blow to the state GOP — and to McCrory.

Click the link for more of her analysis. I myself am wondering if Perdue was encouraged to step aside, and will get a patronage job - - Ambassador to Somewhere - - in a second Obama administration?

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